How to use VUCA analysis

Use VUCA analysis for better issue management

VUCA is an acronym standing for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity, and VUCA analysis is used to describe key characteristics of the external environment. You can use VUCA analysis as a tool for better issue management.

Some knowledge of VUCA factors is valuable to communicators. Apart from considering these factors in your own communication plans, you will impress senior management by being knowledgeable about the terms during planning sessions.

Confronted by this buzzword/buzzphrase, some managers can be overwhelmed and use it as an excuse not to engage in rigorous development of strategy because such factors apparently make it intimidating to look ahead.

However, VUCA types of factors are not new. They have always been integral to scenario planning and in PESTLE analysis (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental) of the external environment in issue management.

(Personally, I would add a ‘C’ to PESTLE analysis – Communication Climate – so it becomes PESTLEC. A crucial part of issue management is analysis of factors affecting communication and stakeholder relations. You can read in more depth about SWOT and PESTLE analysis in my ebook, Annual Communication Plans: How to get the result you want!)

Anyhow, planners and managers have always had to cope with ambiguity and uncertainty in decision-making, and they have always been obliged to try to predict the outcomes of their actions. Therefore, VUCA is not a dramatic step forward. Nevertheless, it can be a useful reminder in PESTLE analysis and scenario planning. Overall, VUCA analysis leads to better issue management.

Two key questions VUCA analysis can help to address are:

  • How much do you know about the situation?
  • How well can you predict the results of your actions?

Professor Nathan Bennett from Georgia State University explained how to use VUCA analysis in a recent Harvard Business blog. He said each factor needed to be analyzed separately from the others; the 4 factors don’t just add up to one big variable.

VUCA factors

Prof. Bennett discussed the characteristics, as well as a business example and business approach relating to each VUCA factor. These are shown below in my own words. In addition I have outlined in italics an example of a communication role relating to each factor to show how the analytical elements of the corporate communication planning model is vital to issue management. It should be noted that fully comprehensive information is seldom available in any situation, and therefore managers are invariably obliged to make decisions based on the best information they can assemble. There is no doubt that VUCA analysis will lead to better issue management.

Volatility

Characteristics

Relatively unstable change. The challenge is unexpected and may be of unknown duration, but it is not necessarily hard to understand; knowledge about it is often available.

Business example
  • Prices fluctuate after a natural disaster, such as when a fire takes out a supplier.
Business approach

Conduct risk analysis, build in spare capacity and devote resources to preparedness – for instance, stockpile inventory or overbuy talent. These steps are typically costly and therefore management should only commit where the cost is justified by the downside.

Communication role

Prepare a crisis management strategy. The communication function should be integrally involved.

Uncertainty

Characteristics

Lack of knowledge. Nevertheless, the situation’s basic cause and effect are known.

Business example
  • A competitor’s expected product launch can change the future of the business and the market.
Business approach

Increase business intelligence activities. Collect, interpret, and share relevant information. Engage in serious boundary-spanning collaboration.

Communication role

The organization’s communication function is the logical area in which to build these resources, especially as the role incorporates boundary-spanning.

Complexity

Characteristics

Complexity variables are the easiest of the 4 factors to understand, but managers can’t know what they don’t know, which compounds the complexity of the situation. Managers may know the likely outcomes but not the unintended consequences of complexity factors. For instance, writing new computer code may open up the further complexity of unforeseen security risks. Some information is available or can be predicted, but the volume or nature of it can be overwhelming.

Business example
  • The company operates in many countries, each of which has its own regulatory environment, tariffs and cultural values.
Business approach

Restructure, bring in or develop specialists, and increase resources adequate to address the complexity.

Communication role

Identify the key stakeholders in each country and initiate a systematic stakeholder relations management program. Tailor messages for each country and its unique culture. Government relations is crucial.

Ambiguity

Characteristics

Causal relationships are completely unclear. No precedents exist; management faces “unknown unknowns.”

Business example
  • The company decides to move into developing markets or to launch new types of products that are outside its previous experience.
Business approach

Companies need to be prepared to take on risk, perhaps initially in trial markets, to evaluate outcomes. Lessons learnt can be applied progressively over time to other markets.

Communication role

Communicators can support with gathering intelligence about the operating environment including regulatory parameters, and in preparing broad issue management and crisis communication strategies in advance.

Further reading

My ebooks on developing successful communication plans offer you a generous number of helpful, practical insights. Tremendous value – just like having your own comms coach immediately available by your side!

Kim Harrison

Kim J. Harrison has authored, edited, coordinated, produced and published the material in the articles and ebooks on this website. He brings his experience in professional communication and business management to provide helpful insights to readers around the world. As he has progressed through his wide-ranging career, his roles have included corporate affairs management; PR consulting; authoring many articles, books and ebooks; running a university PR course; and business management. Kim has received several international media relations awards and a website award. He has been quoted in The New York Times and various other news media, and has held elected positions with his State and National PR Institutes.

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